Arnold for governor, McClintock for US Senate: Taking back California, one position at a time
By Bob Chandra
web posted September 15, 2003
California Republicans cannot afford to wait any longer to resolve the crisis of running two qualified candidates against a single Democrat in the recall race. If Republicans don't narrow the field soon, millions of votes could be cast via absentee ballot for a candidate who isn't running any more. Those votes cannot be changed. Absentee ballots are no rounding error – they accounted for 27 per cent of the vote in last year's elections. Republican procrastination on breaking the Schwarzenegger-McClintock impasse could be devastating and may throw the election to Cruz Bustamante.
How to resolve the crisis? The wisest thing to do is to support Arnold Schwarzenegger for governor and back Tom McClintock for the upcoming US Senate race. Schwarzenegger is the conservative who can win the gubernatorial race.
 Schwarzenegger |
Arnold has the most support by far -- nearly double McClintock's tally. A California Chamber of Commerce poll shows that without McClintock, Arnold would beat Bustamante 49 per cent to 42 per cent. The same cannot be said about McClintock if Arnold were to drop out. McClintock would lose by six points. Maybe that's because according to Field, Schwarzenegger has 29 per cent of the independent vote while McClintock only draws 8 per cent. McClintock cannot win the gubernatorial race. He has not gained appreciably in the one month since the last Field Poll. In fact, McClintock's gain was not greater than the margin of error. He remains at a support level that is less than half of Bustamante's. McClintock's support level is not competitive and his gains, which don't exceed the margin of error, do not signify serious momentum.
The second part of this equation is to support Tom McClintock in the upcoming US Senate race. While McClintock cannot win the gubernatorial race, he is well positioned for next year's Senate race against the vulnerable, ultra- liberal Barbara Boxer. McClintock is a rising star in the California GOP and would represent a formidable challenge to Boxer. Bear in mind that voters look for different qualities in a senator vis-à-vis a governor. In a governor, people are looking for a consensus maker, someone who can work with both parties to bring about results. In a senator, people look for someone with courage of convictions and someone who is deeply substantive. No one fits this bill better than McClintock. The fervor and brevity of the recall race did not suit Peter Ueberroth's candidacy nor does it serve McClintock's candidacy for the same reasons. Both are the kinds of candidates that need time to lay out their positions on the gamut of issues. In the sprint that is the recall race, crossover appeal and name recognition are crucial. McClintock's campaign would be well suited to the dynamics of a lengthier Senate race.
 McClintock |
If McClintock puts principle before ambition and does bow out of the gubernatorial race, conservatives and moderates alike will rally to his side when he takes on Boxer. However, if McClintock continues his spoiler campaign and dooms Republican chances in this recall election, his political capital will be non-existent. This is his choice to make.
Some argue that Arnold should drop out of the gubernatorial race. We have gone down this path twice before in recent years. Both Dan Lungren and Bill Simon were acknowledged to be to the right of California. Both lost to Gray Davis. The third time can be a charm only if we acknowledge our past mistakes and take a different tack. Albert Einstein defined insanity as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results". California voters have told us twice before, in so many ways, to run a center-right candidate and we would be wise to heed their word.
Others argue that neither candidate should drop out and we should let the voters decide. The problem is that the people will decide…to split their vote and throw the election to Cruz Bustamante. Do we want three more years of tax increases, prodigal state spending, zero border enforcement, and more energy crises?
With voting having begun through absentee ballots, Republicans must break
the Schwarzenegger-McClintock impasse. Procrastination and inaction will
result in three more years of the Bustamante-Davis administration. On the
other hand, if we find a workable solution, Republicans may start winning
back California…one position at a time. 
Bob Chandra is a Bay Area Republican activist and
writer. He has written columns for the Washington Dispatch and Men's News
Daily.
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